Rathdrum, Idaho 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

346
FXUS66 KOTX 031057
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
257 AM PST Tue Dec 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and stable weather pattern will persist through the middle
of the week, and temperatures seasonably cool in the upper 20s to
mid 30s. Chances are increasing that the ridge of high pressure
will weaken by the weekend with a return of light precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night: Persistent upper level ridge of high
pressure remains in place. Initially the ridge ridge axis remained
rather broad coming into the workweek however ensemble models
suggest minor disturbances overtopping it and as a result the axis
retrogrades back a bit towards the British Columbia coast Tuesday
but then it rebounds and is over the Cascade Crest Wednesday. A more
pronounced frontal feature with a capable, but not very strong,
moisture tap is expected to push thru Thursday/Thursday night and
may allow some light mountain snow and a mixed wintry mix of precip
for lowlands and valleys. The mixing brought about by the passage of
the Thursday/Thursday night feature allows for some potential for
less clouds and warmer temperatures. /Pelatti

Friday to Monday: The Inland NW will be moving into a more active
pattern with several opportunities for mountain snow and valley
mix, with Saturday being the wettest day. A warm front lifts in
Friday, before a cold front pushes by Saturday. With Friday`s
warm front the main precipitation chances will be found near the
Cascades to Waterville Plateau and northeastern WA/north ID
mountains. Precipitation chances increase throughout the area
Friday night into Saturday morning, with precipitation likely by
Saturday over most of the region and chances remaining high into
Saturday evening. The lowest risk will be found in the deeper
basin and L-C Valley. Ahead of any of this precipitation, there
will be potential for patchy fog/freezing fog and out of that
could be squeezed some drizzle/freezing drizzle or flurries over
the Columbia Basin/Palouse/Spokane/CdA area as milder air overruns
a moist boundary layer.

* Precipitation-type: this will be somewhat tricky. Overall milder
  temperatures move into the area through Saturday and a lot of
  that is expected to be found at the surface and aloft. However
  colder air may linger near the Cascades and northern valleys.
  Primarily look for a lowland snow or a rain/snow mix Friday and
  Friday night into Saturday AM, except for all rain toward east-
  central and southeast WA and the central and southern Panhandle
  as that risks increases Friday night into Saturday. Mountains
  will see mostly snow, but milder air in the Cascades and central
  Panhandle will keep that snow largely in the higher peaks.
  Heading into Saturday afternoon it looks likely mainly lowland
  rain and high mountain snow. The tricky part the freezing rain
  potential. I did increase a chance for freezing rain around the
  north Cascades, largely around the Methow Valley and nearby
  areas, and in some of the sheltered valleys toward the Canadian
  border. Ensembles continue to show a 20-60% chance of at least a
  0.01 inches of inch. Overall confidence in amounts of ice, if
  any, is low but more than trace amounts are possible. There is a
  broad spread in what models depict in this regard. Some
  ensembles show no risk at all and others a broader risk, a risk
  that expands to more of the Columbia Basin into the Spokane
  area. This is not entirely out of the question, but at this
  point seems like less than a 10% chance away from the
  aforementioned areas.

Saturday overnight into early Sunday precipitation chances remain
modest away from the lee of the Cascades, but overall they begin
to wane. Heading into Sunday and Monday the threat of
precipitation retreats to the mountains zones and largely ends
outside of these by Monday. Cooler air comes back in, featuring
the potential for lowland rain/snow mix and mountain snow, save
for mainly rain over the southeast WA and lower ID Sunday
afternoon. Additional fog is forecast behind the precipitation
with the continued moist boundary layer.

Saturday and Sunday will be breezy, with winds gusting around
15-20 mph in unsheltered areas. Temperatures are expected to be
above normal through Sunday, with highs in the 30s to mid-40s. The
warmest day looks like Saturday with some low 50s around the L-C
Valley. Overnight lows will be in the 20s and 30s. Temperatures
cool closer to normal by Monday. /Solveig


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: IFR stratus continues to cover most of the region, with
MVFR stratus over KEAT and KOMK. Little to no change expected.
The lowest visibilities will occur where the stratus intersects
the terrain, which is elevations between 2200 and 3500 feet, which
includes KGEG/KPUW. For these two sites visibility down to 1/4SM
with FZFG will be common for most of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence is high of stratus plaguing the region through 12z
Wed, with widespread IFR/MVFR conditions. With some fluctuations
in the boundary layer wind around KPUW there is lower confidence
with if and for how many hours 1/4SM visibility occurs.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        31  28  32  28  36  27 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  33  29  34  29  38  27 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Pullman        33  28  34  28  39  29 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Lewiston       37  32  38  32  43  32 /  10  10  10  10   0   0
Colville       33  26  34  26  36  23 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      35  28  36  28  38  26 /  10  10  10  10  10  10
Kellogg        40  31  41  31  43  32 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Moses Lake     35  31  36  32  33  24 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      33  30  34  30  38  29 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Omak           33  29  34  29  38  27 /  10  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$